Corporate Communications

VTB Capital analysts present their economic outlook for 2012

14 December 2011

On 14 December, VTB Capital arranged a press briefing for key international and Russian media. The journalists were addressed by Alexey Zabotkin, Head of Investment Strategy at VTB Capital, Alexei Moiseev, Head of Macroeconomy Analysis at VTB Capital, Aleksandra Evtifyeva, Senior Economist at VTB Capital, and Nikolay Podguzov, Head of Fixed Income Strategy at VTB Capital.

The main topic of discussion were the results of 2011 and the prospects of economic growth for 2012. According to VTB Capital’s forecasts, the growth of the Russian economy will reach 3.5% of GDP, the inflation in late 2012 will be at 7%, and rate of exchange rate of Rub vs USD will be 31. The company experts positively assessed the decisions taken by the Russian Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Russia in 2011 that will persuade international investors to acquire Russian bonds.

According to experts, the return of stable and positive dynamics of the Russian stock market is anticipated in early summer 2012, when the bearish trend in global shares is expected to end, and when there is a clearer understanding of the Russian government’s mid-term economic strategy.

Another important factor of the increasing attractiveness of Russian company shares in the eyes of the investors will be the promised increase of dividends by Russia’s largest companies. When implementing the basic scenario, we should expect by the end of 2012 and the start of 2013, a return of Russian stock indices to the level of Q1 2011.

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Natalia Cherepova

VTB Capital

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